Apple's Dad Bod

Ternus's first real move as CEO is out, and sadly it's not fixing autocorrect, which is what the world really wants. It's headcount. And yes, we have the slide.

Okay, I don't actually. But Ternus has been saying the same thing about bloat for years, so I'm pretty sure the slide looks something like this: headcount growth by year, some version of "do more with fewer," the kind of thing he used to say when he was just cranking out phones. Now he's the boss, and the engineering program managers have a few weeks to find a new team. The polite way of saying update your LinkedIn (ed: we'll be watching for this).

The thing is, the data shows Apple slowed hiring starting in 2023, cut it roughly in half, and never really turned it back on. The official numbers show 164K employees in 2022 and 166K last year, which for a company Apple's size is basically flat.

So the problem isn't hiring, it's the legacy staff. Everyone already inside keeps getting promoted because reviews, cycles, the whole corporate machine. The org gets older and thicker in the middle like so many dad bods. EPMs have doubled since 2019 while total headcount has barely budged.

In 2016 Apple had about 12 engineering managers for every 100 engineers. Now it's 15. Tesla sits around 7. Qualcomm, 7. SpaceX, 5. Reasonable for Ternus to think if Elon can put rockets in space with so few managers, maybe Apple can reduce the number it takes to ship a phone.

Since we have a lot of data, I can dig up some big tech names running closer to Apple's numbers. HP and Cisco, to name two. But since when did the folks at Apple Park start benchmarking themselves against those folks?

And that I think is the Ternus thesis in a sentence. If SpaceX can reach orbit with five managers per hundred engineers, maybe Apple can get the next iPhone out the door with something under 15.

Which gives you the range on the cut. Back to Apple's own 2016 ratio? About one in five engineering managers is gone. Tesla/Qualcomm territory? Closer to half.

Take a look at the current benchmarked numbers here, and check in regularly for updates.

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